Global oil market dynamics amid geopolitical instability

The effects of the Israel Hamas war have been devastating. Alongside the tragic loss of life we have enormous uncertainty in the region. Geopolitical risks are intensifying and an escalation in the Middle East will, amongst other things, have meaningful implications on the oil market.

In this Q3 Market Update Alison Savas (Investment Director) and Graham Hay (Portfolio Manager Hardware, Industrials & Commodities) discuss the dynamics and complexities in the global oil market.

In part 2 of this episode, hear an overview of the state of the markets in Q3 2023 and Antipodes’ current portfolio positioning.

Key times:

PART 1 – The Global Oil Market

  • Current oil market dynamics & the implications of lower capital expenditure in recent years: 1:00
  • How Iran could hold the world’s oil market to ransom if the Israel – Hamas conflict widens: 3:40
  • Why US sanctions on Russian crude are ultimately ineffective: 5:30 
  • How Saudi Arabia could respond to an oil supply shortfall: 7:15
  • The Chinese oil demand puzzle: 10:10
  • Antipodes’ view on the outlook for the crude oil price: 13:30
  • Antipodes’ energy exposures (TotalEnergies & Occidental Petroleum)*: 15:00

PART 2 – Q3 Market Update

  • The state of the markets in Q3 2023: 18:00
  • Why it’s unlikely a supportive liquidity environment can be maintained: 21:10
  • A mild recession in the US remains likely: 25:00
  • Antipodes’ portfolio positioning: 27:30



*Stock commentary in this episode is illustrative only and should not be considered as recommendations to buy, hold, or sell any security. 

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8 November 2023