Subscribe to our Good Value podcast wherever you listen:
13 July 2023: In conversation with Ian Harnett | Can the west sidestep recession?
Ian Harnett is a Co-Founder and the Chief Investment Strategist of Absolute Strategy Research (ASR) one of only a handful of highly regarded independent global macro research firms. ASR has a team of analysts globally who have been providing valuable insights to institutional investors and other big corporations for the last 15 years.
In this podcast episode, we’re delighted to bring all our listeners the latest forecasts and observations from ASR, with Ian joining Alison Savas for a discussion covering the key macro topics impacting markets.
14 June 2023: Examining China’s rocky recovery
It was the reopening many investors thought could bring a spectacular stock market resurgence. But the interest in Chinese equities following the end of COVID lockdowns has faded. The domestic recovery has been slower than expected and exports continue to be weighed down by economic deterioration in the West.
But in this podcast episode, John Stavliotis (Lead PM of Antipodes’ Emerging Markets strategy) and Alison Savas (Investment Director) explain why investors should hold the line on China.
Also discussed in this podcast are three interesting China investment ideas- Midea Group, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, and Galaxy Entertainment Group.
4 May 2023: The Fed pivot looms, but what will it mean for global equities?
Despite the uncertainty following the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, global equities were on the up in the first quarter of 2023, with index performance saved by mega-cap tech as the market bets we are on the cusp of the closely-watched Fed pivot.
But will the pivot come as quickly as the market expects and will the outcomes be as the market expects?
In this quarterly market update, Alison Savas (Investment Director) and Jacob Mitchell (Chief Investment Officer), review the key events of Q1 2023 and provide listeners an insight into the Antipodes’ team broader market outlook and portfolio positioning.
They also discuss three stocks to navigate this complex market and macro environment – Sanofi (EPA: SAN), TotalEnergies (EPA: TTE) & Midea Group (SHE: 000333).
4 April 2023: Life after Silicon Valley Bank & Credit Suisse
In this podcast episode, Alison Savas (Investment Director) and James Rodda (Global Developed Markets PM) discuss the vulnerabilities that remain within global financials, along with the relative winners and losers that could emerge following the recent turmoil.
The episode also covers potential investment opportunities given the move in US and European financials and the differences between their financial systems, including insights into our portfolio holdings UniCredit (BIT: UCG) and ING Group (AMS: INGA)*.
8 March 2023: Siemens Energy CEO, Dr Christian Bruch on the energy transition
As a global leader in wind turbines, utility scale gas turbines and grid transmission equipment, Siemens Energy is at the forefront of the transition to net zero and provides investors one of the most well-rounded decarbonisation exposures.
In this podcast episode, Alison Savas is joined by Siemens Energy CEO, Dr Christian Bruch.
Dr Bruch shares unique perspectives into the challenges the world faces in the energy transition. Some of the numbers he discusses are so large it’s hard to get your head around them. For example, Dr Bruch explains that the annual installation of offshore wind turbines needs to increase by 7-8x to meet 2030 targets.
Similarly, the annual investment in the grid in the EU needs to at least double by 2030 as the grid needs to be rebuilt and extended to distribute renewables.
Dr Bruch also provides insight into how Siemens Energy is positioned within this generational investment cycle and how the business can deliver meaningful top line growth and a substantial profit swing over the coming years.
6 February 2023: The great earnings cycle divide & examining the case for gold
In this episode, Alison Savas (Antipodes’ Director of Investments), is joined by Rameez Sadikot (Portfolio Manager and head of Antipodes Quant, Macro and Currency).
In part one, Alison and Rameez discuss the state of global equity markets, including the earnings downgrade cycle divide between the US, and China and Europe, and why investors should be wary of bear market rallies.
In the second half of this episode, the focus turns to gold. After a lacklustre performance through most of 2022, investors are once again beginning to pay attention to gold. Alison and Rameez share Antipodes’ views and due diligence, along with the investment case for Australian gold mining giant, Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM)*, which itself is in the headlines. The recent bid from US mining giant Newmont shows Antipodes isn’t alone in identifying value in the company.
21 December 2022: Sector-specific outlooks for 2023
In this special episode, Alison Savas goes ‘around the grounds’ within our investment team to provide you sector-specific outlooks for 2023.
5 December 2022: Investing in Emerging Markets
Emerging markets have always had interesting structural opportunities around demographics, rising wealth and consumption trends. But it hasn’t been an easy place to make money in recent years. So, the question is, why should investors consider Emerging Markets now, and can EM deliver on its growth potential and reward investors?
In this new podcast episode Alison Savas and Antipodes’ Emerging Markets portfolio managers discuss the key opportunities and risks we see across emerging economies and delve into some of Antipodes’ best EM investing ideas.
4 November 2022: Navigating geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty
Escalating geopolitical tensions, Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power in China, and the US Fed’s economic ‘balancing act’ are some the most significant issues dominating the macroeconomic backdrop for global investors as we move into the final quarter of the calendar year.
In Part 1 of this new podcast episode, we provide listeners an insight into the way Antipodes is approaching these global affairs and the anticipated consequences for investors.
In Part 2, we provide an update on Antipodes’ portfolio positioning and discuss portfolio holdings, Merck and Co (NYSE: MRK) and Diageo (LON: DGE).
11 October 2022: Antipodes’ approach to shorting
Through the recent decade-long bull market many have viewed short positions as simply a drag on performance. But in 2022 the regime has shifted.
Portfolio protection has come back to the fore with the S&P 500 shedding around a quarter of its value so far this year, and concerns about global economic growth and central bank policy rising.
In this podcast episode, Alison Savas and Jacob Mitchell discuss Antipodes’ approach to shorting and examine a recent short position in the Antipodes Global Fund.
30 August 2022: RWE & Europe’s energy crunch
German energy giant, RWE, is faced with the challenge of helping to power a continent in the midst of a power crunch, while at the same time working towards ambitious decarbonisation targets.
In this podcast episode, Alison Savas, talks to RWE’s Chief Financial Officer, Michael Muller on the energy crisis, decarbonisation and RWE’s operations.
2 August 2022: The time for a contrarian mindset
Global equities have fallen 16% this year (to June 30) as Central Banks set their sights firmly on reducing inflation, despite growing concerns around economic activity.
The Antipodes team anticipates a continued shift globally towards fiscal activism and away from the passive outsourcing of economic policy to Central Banks via QE and asset price stimulus that we’ve seen over the last two decades.
In this quarterly market update on the Good Value Podcast, Jacob Mitchell and Alison Savas discuss why a contrarian approach to investing is required during what could be an upcoming period of greater economic volatility.
27 June 2022: Uncovering value amid the market sell off
Tech stocks have borne the brunt of the recent sell off in equity markets and with the Nasdaq firmly in bear market territory, it is unprofitable tech stocks that have been hit the hardest – down almost 60% this year.
But amid these sell offs, there can be category leaders that fall to attractive valuations, relative to their long-term growth profile. Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX) is an example of this today. It’s a beneficiary on the ongoing trend around data moving to the cloud as our lives become increasingly connected, and it’s priced at just 8x next year’s earnings.
1 June 2022: Meta & the battle for digital advertising supremacy
Antipodes has owned Meta (previously Facebook) since the end of 2018 and despite the recent volatility in which many sold out of the company, it remains one of our top 20 holdings.
We think that even though competition for eyeballs is increasing, and will continue to increase, the digital advertising pie is growing, and Meta can continue to dominate advertising revenue over our investment horizon. Further we believe there are opportunities to increase the monetisation rate of core Facebook and Instagram.
In this new podcast episode, Alison Savas is joined by Ben Legg, one of the world’s leading authorities on the digital advertising industry. Ben is a former Google COO, and now helps global brands advertise on social networks.
2 May 2022: Quarterly market update: Stagflation, policy error risk & holding the line on China
By the end of March, the S&P was only 5% shy of its all-time highs set in early January despite intensifying geopolitical and economic uncertainty. In fact, in early March US equities staged one of the largest and fastest bear market rallies since 1928.
But the move back into the growthier tech complex in the US has now faded into April. So, what’s to come in this complex market environment?
30 March 2022: Energy and commodity stocks: strengthening portfolios today, but what about the future?
In this podcast episode, I was joined by Antipodes’ Portfolio Manager of Hardware, Industrials and Commodities to discuss energy and commodity stocks, now and into the future.
We discuss why Antipodes has been increasing exposure to energy and commodities, the implications of sanctions on Russia and the impact to the Ukraine, along with the longer-term outlook for the sectors.
28 February 2022: Norsk Hydro: An aluminium giant for the new world
In this episode on the Good Value podcast (recorded Monday 21 February, 2022), Alison Savas is joined by the Executive Vice President and CFO of Norsk Hydro, Pål Kildemo.
Norsk Hydro is a long-term holding in Antipodes’ global portfolios, including the ASX-listed Antipodes Global Shares (Quoted Managed Fund) active-ETF (ASX: AGX1).
Not only is the Oslo-listed company one of the largest aluminium producers in the world, it also has one of the lowest carbon footprints.
Alison and Pål discuss Norsk’s low-carbon, low-cost production, the opportunity for a green aluminium premium, and the structural trends impacting the aluminium market.
1 February 2022: Quarterly update: 3 key investment themes to watch in 2022 (Q4 2021)
In this episode on the Good Value podcast (recorded Monday 31 January, 2022), Jacob Mitchell and Alison Savas discuss three key themes to watch in global markets in 2022.
13 December 2021: Omicron: Key considerations for investors & the investment case for two global healthcare stocks
Just as the global economy started hitting its reopening stride, Omicron has seen uncertainty return.
First identified in Botswana, Omicron spread to South Africa where the alarm was raised on the 24th November. Since then, the variant has been confirmed in almost 40 other countries.
With around 60% of the global population fully vaccinated – the question is, how big a threat is this?
There are many unknowns when it comes to this new variant. These, along with the key facts we do know, plus the important signposts investor should track are discussed with Antipodes’ healthcare portfolio manager, Dr Nick Cameron, in the latest episode of the Good Value podcast.
29 November 2021: Europe‘s energy crisis
As an unprecedented European winter power crunch approaches, North America’s natural gas sector is rising from more than a decade-long slumber.
For the sector, a compelling supply demand equation is emerging which could set the foundations for a significant multi-year hydrocarbon cycle.
27 October 2021: Quarterly update: Inflation, energy & China‘s economy (Q3 2021)
Three key issues – inflation, the power crunch, and China’s economy – reverberated during the third quarter of 2021 and continue to present a complex backdrop for global equity investors.
As we move into 2022, we think it will be critical that global equity portfolios are appropriately positioned to provide exposure to the potential opportunities while providing protection against risks that may emerge such as an economic growth shock (perhaps from a hard landing in China), or an inflation shock.
There’s also the possibility of a combination of both – the stagflation scenario.
In Antipodes’ quarterly portfolio update on the Good Value podcast, hear a discussion on the three key issues and how Antipodes’ portfolios are positioned – we’re focusing on resilient businesses that are market leaders with the ability to take profitable market share against a backdrop of higher inflation.
20 September 2021: Uncovering ESG investing opportunities
At Antipodes, we look for acceptable standards and a pathway to continued, sustainable improvement – where improvement can be measured and monitored.
We like turnaround cases in highly carbon emitting sectors, we like seeing how supply and demand dynamics change when major carbon limitations are initiated, and we like corporate governance improvement candidates. And we actively avoid areas of the market where valuations are extreme because of perceived ESG factors.
23 August 2021: Finding value in big tech
In this episode of the Good Value podcast, I discuss Antipodes’ approach to finding value in big tech and other parts of the market, with James Rodda, Portfolio Manager of Consumer and Domestic Services, Developed Markets.
23 July 2021: Quarterly update: Outlook for global equities (Q2 2021)
As a pragmatic value manager, it’s about having exposure to companies across the growth spectrum, that are attractively priced for their growth profile – simply speaking, avoiding value and growth traps.
22 June 2021: Antipodes’ approach to investing in China
When it comes to pragmatic value, China offers a myriad of investment opportunities – attractively priced businesses with strong long-term growth profiles, supported by structural tailwinds.
In the latest episode of the Good Value podcast, we discuss the equities in Antipodes’ portfolio providing investors exposure to the rise of the Chinese consumer. They also discuss decarbonisation in China and a portfolio holding providing robust exposure to this other major multi-decade investment opportunity.
24 May 2021: Challenging the inflation consensus
In this episode on the Good Value Podcast, listen to a discussion about the inflation debate, the structural drivers that could lead to higher inflation and how Antipodes is positioning for inflation.
27 April 2021: Quarterly update: The emergence of new market leaders (Q1 2021)
The rotation into low multiple stocks gathered pace during the quarter following an acceleration in the vaccine roll out combined with additional stimulus. US Treasuries, which have lagged other expressions of the reopening trade, started to catch up prompting the low multiple – or value – rally to broaden out beyond growth cyclicals. Whilst we have seen some steepening of the yield curve, real yields remain firmly negative which is extraordinary given developments in the global economy.
One year on from “coronavirus” entering household vocabulary, the global economic cycle has rebounded but remains below trend (figure 1). Emerging economies are leading the developed world despite the slower vaccine rollout and little stimulus. A diligent handling of the virus in the early stages supported domestic activity and stimulus in the US has buoyed exports. To that point, China’s industrial production and exports now exceed 2019 levels.
The US economy is motoring along thanks to a fiscal driven consumption boom, while lingering restrictions in Europe, from a slower than expected vaccine rollout, and less stimulus sees the Eurozone limp along. Europe’s manufacturing activity has been supported by China’s robust recovery, but the services economy remains stubbornly below trend.
Arguably Europe has the most cyclical economic upside as the rollout in vaccines accelerates.
29 March 2021: Tesla, Volkswagen and the race for EV domination
As the auto industry embarks on the biggest transition in its history, a global race to dominate electric vehicles is underway. Tesla, Volkswagen and the evolution of the EV market is discussed in this episode on the Good Value podcast.
24 February 2021: The tech behind big tech – why semiconductors are like shovels in a gold rush
When most investors think about investing in technology leaders, it’s the FAANG’s, Tesla and other disruptors currently exciting the market. But there’s a lesser-known group of businesses critical to next generation technology.
Like selling shovels in a gold rush, leading-edge semiconductor manufacturers provide the hardware big tech (and its big aspirations) can’t go without.
In this episode on the Good Value podcast we discuss how we’re providing our investors exposure to semiconductor manufacturing and delve into why this is major structural growth opportunity. You can listen here or continue reading a brief synopsis of the investment case below.
17 December 2020:Why investors can’t ignore decarbonisation
In the last episode for 2020 on Antipodes’ Good Value podcast, Portfolio Managers Alison Savas and Graham Hay delve into the key tailwinds highlighted above and further detail our decarbonisation exposures.
28 October 2020:US election: Two pathways, one destination for markets
Regardless of the US election result, Antipodes’ view is the longer-term direction of markets will be very similar.
In our latest podcast episode, US election: Two pathways, one destination for markets, Jacob Mitchell explains this in further detail, and also analyses some of the more immediate election investment implications.
21 October 2020:The pathway to COVID-19 vaccination
Antipodes believes a mild cyclical recovery may be here sooner than many believe should positive news on vaccine development emerge. A positive vaccine outcome is key for Western consumers to fully normalise behaviour. It is a material positive outcome for a sustained re-opening of the economy and for related equity exposures.
In this podcast, Antipodes’ Healthcare Portfolio Manager Dr Nick Cameron interviews Dr Michael Farzan – one of the world’s leading experts on COVID-19 vaccine development.
Dr Farzan highlights the work happening behind the scenes in COVID-19 vaccine development and some of the challenges facing scientists. He says to-date significant progress has been made.
“I’m so confident we’re going to be able to make a decent vaccine, that even what I consider to be sub-optimally designed vaccines at this point, I expect to work effectively enough to make sense to distribute to the population,” Dr Farzan said during the podcast episode.
“Current vaccines (in development) are going to provide enough protection to keep most of us out of the hospital, to prevent most of us from having severe diseases, but perhaps not preventing most of us from transmitting to one another.
“Even from that starting point, we have a very large amount of running room to improve. The next generation of vaccines will be better than the first generation. And also maybe as importantly a boost even with a not-so-good vaccine can overcome the limitations of a not very good vaccine.
“I think in reasonable order, meaning certainly somewhere in 2021, anybody who will be willing to get a vaccine can have access to a vaccine.”